Wage stagnation and structure transformation(工资停滞与结构转型)

時間:2020-01-09         阅读:

光华讲坛——社会名流与企业家论坛第 5683 期

主題:Wage stagnation and structure transformation(工资停滞与结构转型)

主講人:台湾“中央研究院”人文社会科學研究中心 陈为政助理研究员

主持人:发展研究院 李丁副教授

時間:2020年1月16日(星期四)上午10:30-12:00

地點:西南財經大學柳林校區格致樓1102會議室

主辦單位:发展研究院 经济学院 科研处

主講人簡介:

陈为政,台湾“中央研究院”人文社会科學研究中心助理研究员。专长领域为宏观经济理论、发展经济学、教育经济学等。已发表重要著作于Games and Economic Behavior、Economics Letters等重要学术期刊。

主要內容:

In Taiwan, average wages in manufacturing and service sector have been stagnant since 2002. Most of negative labor demand-side shocks occurred in the manufacturing sector, while wage stagnation in the service sector is more severe than in the manufacturing. In order to explain this phenomenon, the research characterizes heterogeneous labor’s occupation choices by the Roy model and general equilibrium model. The study particularly classifies labor into four types by their gender and education level to describe their occupation choice problems by their comparative advantages. Finally, the study uses the calibrated model to analyze the impacts of three exogenous shocks on equilibrium: manufacturers’ shifts, deterioration in terms of trade, and increase in the number of highly educated workers. The net effect of three exogenous shocks indicates that labor mainly move to the service sector, resulting in that average wages in the service sector drop more than in the manufacturing. Therefore, the model in this paper provides a possible explanation for that wages in the service sector are more stagnant, which is rarely explained by empirical studies.

本文結合Roy模型與一般均衡模型,解釋自2002年起,台灣制造業面臨勞動需求面的不利沖擊影響,但卻是服務業平均實際薪酬嚴重停滯的現象。本文的校准模型通過模擬各種勞動力可能的生産力分配狀況,分析勞工的職業選擇和薪資分配,並分析三種外生沖擊的影響:制造業廠商外移、貿易條件惡化以及受過高等教育勞工增加對均衡的影響。三個因素的淨效果顯示在外生沖擊下勞動力會主要向服務業轉移,並造成服務業平均薪資的大幅下降。本文的貢獻在于,模型的模擬結果能夠解釋實證文獻中對于服務業薪資嚴重停滯原因不能解釋的部分。